A master sergeant involved in planning the January raid to capture Nicolás Maduro allegedly placed 13 bets on Polymarket, turning $33,000 into more than $400,000. Now he’s facing federal charges—and a comparison to Pete Rose from President Trump.
The Arrest
On April 23, 2026, federal authorities announced the arrest of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina . His alleged crime? Using classified information about a top-secret military operation to bet on—and win big from—the prediction market Polymarket .
Van Dyke was part of the U.S. military operation that captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 . According to the unsealed indictment, he “participated in the planning and execution” of that mission for about a month, beginning December 8, 2025 .
And then he allegedly bet on it.
The Bets
Prosecutors say Van Dyke created a Polymarket account in late December 2025 and placed approximately 13 bets taking the “Yes” position on several markets related to the Maduro operation . The wagers included:
- Whether U.S. Forces would enter Venezuela
- Whether Maduro would be “out” by January 31, 2026
He bet a total of roughly $33,034 . After the mission succeeded, his winnings amounted to more than $409,000 .
According to the Justice Department, Van Dyke had signed nondisclosure agreements promising he would not divulge “any classified or sensitive information” related to the operations . The same day of the raid—January 3—he withdrew most of his proceeds from Polymarket .
The Cover-Up Attempt
It didn’t stop there. Officials allege that shortly after the operation, Van Dyke sent most of his winnings to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing them into a newly created online brokerage account . He also asked Polymarket to delete his account, falsely claiming he had lost access to the associated email address .
But the “outsized trade” had already caught law enforcement’s attention . Polymarket, for its part, says it referred the matter to the Department of Justice.
“When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation,” the company posted on X. “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works” .
The Charges
Van Dyke faces a staggering list of federal charges :
- Unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain
- Theft of nonpublic government information
- Commodities fraud
- Wire fraud
- Making an unlawful monetary transaction
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also brought civil charges against him .
Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, was blunt in his statement: “Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain. The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law” .
Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche added, “Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain” .
The Trump Comparison
When asked about the case by reporters, President Donald Trump said he wasn’t familiar with the details—but offered an unexpected analogy.
“That’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” Trump said, referring to the baseball legend banned from the sport over gambling. “If he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team. I’ll look into it” .
The comparison is imperfect—Rose bet on his own team to win, which was still a violation of MLB rules. Van Dyke allegedly used inside information about a mission he helped execute to bet on its outcome. Both are gambling scandals. Only one involves classified intelligence and a foreign cryptocurrency vault.
The Soldier’s Background
Van Dyke is not a low-level enlistee. According to the indictment, he joined the Army in 2008 and was promoted to Master Sergeant in 2023—the second-highest enlisted rank in the Army . His most recent posting was at Fort Bragg (now Fort Liberty) in Fayetteville, North Carolina, a hub for U.S. Army Special Forces .
The indictment also notes a photograph—allegedly uploaded to Van Dyke’s Google account in the early morning hours of January 3—showing him on the deck of a ship “wearing U.S. military fatigues, and carrying a rifle, standing alongside three other individuals wearing U.S. military fatigues” . It’s a striking image: a special forces soldier, fresh from a high-stakes mission, pausing for a photo—oblivious to the fact that his bets had already started a paper trail that would lead federal investigators straight to his door.
The FBI’s Message
FBI Director Kash Patel made the bureau’s position unmistakable.
“Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law, and this FBI will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation’s secrets,” Patel said in a statement. “Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable” .
The Bigger Picture: Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny
Van Dyke’s case appears to be the first time the Department of Justice has brought insider trading charges involving a prediction market . But it may not be the last.
Earlier this month, the Associated Press reported that a group of new accounts on Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7—resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits . The same day the AP published the report, the White House warned staff against using private information to trade on prediction markets .
These platforms—once dismissed as niche toy markets for political obsessives—are now big enough to attract bad actors. And when those bad actors have security clearances, the FBI tends to notice.
What’s Next
Van Dyke was expected to appear before a judge in North Carolina on Thursday, April 23 . The Department of Justice has not announced a court date or provided information on his legal representation .
If convicted on all charges, the master sergeant—who spent nearly two decades serving his country—could face years in federal prison. Not for treason or cowardice, but for treating a classified military operation like a futures market.
The Pentagon has deferred comment to the Department of Justice. The Army and U.S. Special Operations Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment .
One thing is clear: if you’re going to bet on a secret mission you helped plan, don’t be surprised when the feds come knocking. And definitely don’t ask the betting site to delete your account afterward. They’ll notice.